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5/25/17

Advice for Komet Resources (KMT.v): For extra giggles, next time use millimetres

Gotta love this NR headline today:

"Komet Intersects 10.62 g/t on 57 cm Au and 8.64 g/t on 52 cm With Core Drilling South to the Guiro Mine"

Yes, they have the brass neck to present a shitty uneconomic vein to you in centimetres. So yeah, really they should have gone the whole hog and given us "10.62 g/t over 570mm". Because big number. 

H/T Reader R.

Gold drifts

The irony of this is that U$1,250/oz or U$1,260/oz is a pretty decent number for gold, any producer mining company worth its salt will make money at this level* and the decent projects will show robust margins**. But until and unless gold stops drifting at its current level, both the metal and its derivative plays in the precious metals miners sector will remain unattractive to generalist money.


For what it's worth, I think U$1,270/oz is a trigger level (and have said as much in the last couple of weeks in the Weekly). But the chart above has a big elephant in the room, the real one is $1,300. K.I.S.S.



*Which means a lot of crappy companies won't
**In theory at least. They'll all promise you their project "works" at U$1,200/oz gold. Most of them are lying

Soroche Macri Cartes Moreno

Two regional Presidents came down with altitude sickness, also known as 'soroche', at the inauguration of Lenin Moreno as President of Ecuador yesterday in Quito (appox 3,000 metres above sea level, just under 10,000 feet in old money). Both Horacio Cartes of Paraguay and Mauricio Macri of Argentina felt sick, went back to their hotels once the official swearing-in was done and dusted and left Quito early (no lunch for you). Both are reported in good health today in their respective countries (pretty typical that lowlanders recover quickly once down from altitude) but as Macri has been in ill health on a couple of occasions in the last two or three years (he suffers from irregular heartbeat) there's still concern about him among supporters and his health is making the front pages again the Argentina this morning.


5/24/17

Wednesday has been cancelled

Due to lack of interest.

5/23/17

Sibanye Gold (SBGL) and that rights offering (from IKN418)

I really don't feel like writing much today so here's the piece from IKN418 last weekend on Sibanye Gold (SBGL) and that rights offering we saw last week. It's an explainer on how the rights offering works and, as the company is part of our tracking "Producer Basket" in the weekly, a word on a necessary price adjustment for the 2017 table in The IKN Weekly.

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Sibanye Gold (SBGL): Friday morning saw a big change in numbers at SBGL as the bottom fell out of the nominal share price of Sibanye Gold (SBGL). This was due to the announcement (8) of a rights issue to existing shareholders that lets them buy nine shares for every seven they already own at a discount which is up for debate (it depends how you frame the terms), but was generally reported at 60% by the bizwires and media. That made for a big difference and the 32.2% drop on Friday got me blogging (9) along with the rest of the world. Before we go any further I do think it a negative deal because the raise was much bigger than expected. In effect SBGL are saying that equity is cheaper than debt, the implied message being shareholders are bigger suckers than banker (no disagreement there but I wish they hadn’t been so blatant about it). I also certainly stick by the main thrust of my post on Friday, that sell side anal ysts sitting in their cubicles in brokerages are either 1) groping in the dark about company strategies along with us or 2) in possession of illegal inside information. However, we need to address the share price drop caused by the rights call because as you can see above, SBGL shares are still in the green in my little list. How so? Read on.



Rights offerings are more common in UK listed stocks than they are in companies listed on in The Americas and I don’t mind admitting, it’s a long time since I modelled a real live issuance (though I did have to do a few ciggypack calcs on Minera IRL when the scumbags running the show in 2015 and 2016 threatened us all with one). In this case SBGL (the object of our affection, the NYSE ADR) is offering two things to its existing shareholders:



  • If you own 7 shares of SBGL you have the right to buy 9 new shares.
  • You can buy those 9 new shares at a hefty discount (details further down on that)



That means the current share count is going to be diluted heavily and that showed in the share price dumpage. SBGL closed U$8.13 on Thursday, the day before the rights announcement and after the hoo-hah of Friday closed 32.23% down at U$5.51. But! What we need to understand is that the holders of SBGL shares haven’t just lost that money. They’ve also been given the right to buy a whole bunch of new stock at a big discount which they can either buy and hold or, if they prefer, sell immediately. That’s the “right” they have in the deal, (it’s called a rights offering after all) and it’s worth money. Our job is to find out how much it’s worth and for that, here we go with a little model based purely on the SBGL ADR that’s traded in New York. The bullet points go like this:



  • Person X owns 1000 shares of SBGL. As they closed at U$8.13 on Thursday, the position was worth a total of U$8,130.



  • The rights offering happens and as a result, SBGL gives Person X the right to buy 1,285 shares at a 60% discount. As a matter of fact, the much-bandied 60% number is a bit false, it’s done to a nominal price of U$8.60 per ADR as the deal is being struck in South African Rand and on May 17th closing prices, there is a bit of looseness to reality.



  • Anyway, in real terms that means Person X can now buy 1,285 shares at U$3.44 per share (assuming the US Dollar/Rand forex remains unchanged during the period).



  • Person X decides that they will indeed take up their rights in full. Friday sees the stock close at U$5.51.



  • Therefore person X now owns U$5,510 of common stock, plus 1,285 pieces of paper, called “rights”, to buy SBGL at U$3.44 a pop.



  • The difference between the U$5.51 close and the U$3.44 rights price is U$2.27. therefore and in effect, Person X holds 1,285 in-the-money call options that they can exercise and sell on the very same day (if they so desire) which would net them U$2,917 (pre-commish).



  • Therefore, as at this weekend Person X now has a total holding in SBGL of (5510 + 2,917) U$8,427. Far from being down, that person is now theoretically up on the deal by U$297. For sure there is commission to take into account, but it’s a lot less dramatic than it looked in the first place.



So that’s the math, far less dramatic than the big fat red number we saw on the boards Friday, is it not? However, it also means that to stay within the realms of reality here at The IKN Weekly Producer Basket I need to adjust the table line item for SBGL. Therefore, in order to make the SBGL position in the Producer Basket as near to reality as possible I’ve decided to reduce the December 31st reference price by U$2.27 (the difference between the rights value and Friday’s close). That brings down the original price as at December 31st to an artificial U$4.79, which obviously wasn’t the price that day but is in line with true stock value.



It’s not a perfect solution, it doesn’t take into account any slippage due to commissions on trades of the rights stocks or any forex adjustments, but it’s the easiest way to get to a more reasonable baseline level for SBGL. You’ll also note that I’ve assumed a 100% take-up of the rights offering and the shares out count has moved from 228.71m to 522.77m (228.71/7x9+228.71). That’s an interim number, we’ll find out how many ADR Equivalent shares exist once the rights offering is closed but at the moment it values SBGL at U$2.88Bn.

Manchester

It was the details of first two named victims that tipped the balance and started me crying. An eighteen year old girl. An eight year old girl. And there are at least another 20 names to come.

No further posts today.

Chart of the day is...

...Asanko Gold (AKG), June 28th 2016 to date:



June 28th because that was the day K2 Associates published its short report on the company. A lot of sell side suits laughed about that call at the time. Still laughing, assholes?

Asanko Gold (AKG): Everything Is Awesome

Is there anyone left out there who still doubts that K2 Assoc was right about its "Short Asanko" call last year? And that all the fawning sell side coverage that pumped it to absurd levels was wrong? If there are any True Believers holding out against cruel reality, they should take a look at today's NR from AKG this morning and have a jolly good think about what it really means. Here's an extract, your humble scribe does a bit of highlighting:

Peter Breese, President and CEO, commented, "With the successful in-fill drill program completed and timely approval from the regulatory authorities, it made perfect sense to accelerate Akwasiso ahead of Dynamite Hill given its proximity to the plant, lower capital costs and that it is a larger and higher grade deposit than Dynamite Hill. The local mining contractor has already mobilized to site with road construction and site preparation at an advanced stage. First ore from Akwasiso is due in June 2017 and we expect the mining and processing costs of this ore to be considerably cheaper than the current hard rock operations at Nkran.

Yup, they're this desperate to tap a 214k resource. As they say round these parts, pez por la boca muere. Whole NR here.


A longer view of the ten year TIPS yield chart

It doesn't do everything all the time, but it does mark the trend changes in gold:




I find it particularly interesting (no pun intended) at the moment, as the new Trump rally tries its very hardest to jawbone prosperity and growth. Each spike and drop adds to the money market's reply: They're not buying it.

5/22/17

A suicide bomber at a teen pop concert

My hatred of religious dogma grows.

5/21/17

The IKN Weekly, out now




IKN418 has just been sent to subscribers. More numbers than words in my weekend this time.

Feel free to take the day of tomorrow.

Sarunas Jasikevicius has got his priorities right

Watch this short segment of press conference as Sarunas Jasikevicius, head coach of basketball team Zalgiris Kaunas, teaches the reporter asking the questions a few facts of life:



The subject was one of the players, Brazilian Augusto Lima, who had been given time off before a crucial semi-final match for the birth of his child. So the reporter asks coach Sarunas:

Reporter: "Is it normal for a player to leave the team during the semi-final?"
Sarunas: “What do I think about it? I allowed him to go.”
Reporter: “But is it normal for a player to leave the team during the semifinals?”
Sarunas: “Do you have kids? When you have kids, youngster, you’ll understand. Because that’s the height of a human experience. Wow, that’s a good question, really. Do you think basketball is the most important thing in life?”
Reporter: “No, but a semifinal is important.”
Sarunas: “A semifinal? To whom is it important? Did you see the number of fans at the game? Important? When you see your first child, you will understand what the most important thing in life is. Comand have a chat with me then. Because nothing can be more majestic in the world than the birth of a child. Not titles, not anything else. Augusto Lima is now in heaven emotionally. I’m really happy for him.”


A new IKN hero. Youtube here.